We are witnessing a variation of the Bradley Effect where white voters when deciding between a white and a black candidate might profess to have no opinion or indicate they will vote for the black candidate in polling while they actually intend to vote for the white one. They do this because they don’t want to open up themselves to criticism of racial bias so they give a response that is more politically correct.
One thing we know about Donald Trump is that his followers have no concerns about being politically correct. We also often hear, “he’s saying what we’re thinking” which is likely true. Trump has consistently outperformed his polling which tells us that even more people than admit to supporting Trump are voting for him. Despite the recent horrific media cycles he’s had the past two weeks after his attacks on a rival’s wife, arrest of his campaign manager and desiring to punish women for having abortions. He still leads by a large margin in national polls which I submit is likely understated.
They say that Trump has tapped into the anger of largely white males which deserves an entire conversation of its own as to what they are angry about. The answer most often given is related to economics and the increasing gap between the rich and the rest of us. Another answer not spoken of in polite circles is that people are not voting for him in spite of his racism, xenophobia and misogyny but because of it. The Trump Effect like the Bradley effect before speaks less of the candidates than it does the hearts and minds of the populace.